A Series of New CFR Reports Outline How to End the War in Ukraine

In a new collection of reports from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), authors Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Liana Fix, Thomas Graham, Michael O’Hanlon, and Paul B. Stares provide expert recommendations for the Donald Trump administration regarding how to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. 

“Russia’s war in Ukraine not only threatens Ukraine’s sovereignty but also European security and the rules-based international order writ large,” said CFR President Michael Froman. “These timely and actionable reports offer the Trump administration a broad range of concrete policy recommendations to bring a just end to the war.” 

Part of CFR’s Special Initiative on Securing Ukraine’s Future, the series provides a complementary and holistic approach to ending the war and ensuring Ukraine’s security in the future. 

“The Trump administration has indicated its desire to end the war in Ukraine within the next one hundred days, but many issues need to be resolved before this can be accomplished,” said Stares, director of the Center for Preventive Action and General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention. “This series of publications is intended to provide actionable recommendations for the Trump administration to tackle those issues in a way that not only ensures Ukraine and Europe’s long-term security but advances core U.S. interests.” 

“The Art of a Good Deal: Ukraine’s Strategic Economic Opportunity for the United States”  

CFR Senior Fellow Heidi Crebo-Rediker argues that “ensuring Ukrainian independence and sovereignty is not just the right thing to do, it is also a good deal for the United States.” 

She writes that this deal derives from how Ukraine “possesses significant reserves of critical minerals and rare earth elements, has a cutting-edge defense industry, and a robust technology and cyber sector, all of which can offer vast benefits for U.S. economic and security interests.”  

“By investing in Ukraine’s industries and integrating them into Western markets, the United States can advance both its national security and its economic leadership, secure resilience, and strengthen NATO, while simultaneously preventing Russia and China from access to those very same resources,” emphasizes Crebo-Rediker. “The United States cannot pass up this opportunity.” 

“Partners in Peacemaking: How the United States and Europe Can End the War in Ukraine” 

CFR Fellow for Europe Liana Fix highlights ways the United States should work with Europe to secure the best possible outcome in a Russia-Ukraine cease-fire deal.  

Fix asserts that “involving Europe will strengthen the United States’ negotiating position, reduce the U.S. burden in Europe, anchor Ukraine firmly in the Western democratic community, and build a more durable peace on the continent.” 

“A peace deal with European buy-in would be a better and less costly peace deal for the United States than without Europe,” writes Fix. Without security guarantees from Europeans, “the Trump administration risks replicating the Afghanistan debacle if Russia decides to attempt another attack on Ukraine in the next few years. This scenario should be avoided at all costs.” 

“Toward a Settlement of the Russia-Ukraine War”  

CFR Distinguished Fellow Thomas Graham lays out the course of action for negotiating a settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war in his report. 

Graham asserts that it will be easier to persuade Kyiv to negotiate seriously, due to its deteriorating conditions, compared to Russian President Vladimir Putin. To bring Putin to the negotiating table “requires action in four areas: articulation of a shared Western and Ukrainian vision of success; continued support for Ukraine’s war effort and its integration into the Euro-Atlantic community, resistance to Russia, including targeted sanctions, ramped-up weapons production, and pressure on its partners; and incentives for Russia such as an offer to restore more normal diplomatic relations.” 

Graham notes that the settlement process will be complex, involving a series of agreements, phone calls, consultations, and more. He stresses that “presidential engagement will be critical to success, but the hard work will have to be done by two presidential envoys.” 

“With a well-coordinated effort, President Trump might be able to get Ukraine and Russia to agree to a roadmap to peace in the next several months,” states Graham. “That would be a major diplomatic success. But it would be a map for a long journey.” 

“Defending Ukraine in the Absence of NATO Security Guarantees” 

CFR General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention Paul B. Stares and Brookings Senior Fellow Michael E. O’Hanlon look to the future and assert that “Ukraine can defend itself effectively if attacked in the aftermath of a cease-fire agreement by creating a multilayered territorial defense system for the roughly 80 percent of its pre-2014 territory that it still controls.” 

Rooted in a substantial military force that will require foreign assistance, such a defense would involve “a hardened outer defense perimeter, a strategic rapid response force to respond to serious threats, and enhanced protection for major population centers and critical infrastructure.” 

“Planning for the defense of Ukraine in the absence of NATO security guarantees should begin now regardless of the timing of cease-fire negotiations. Moreover, to the extent possible, the terms and provisions of a cease-fire agreement should go beyond simply ending the war to advance Ukraine’s future security,” conclude the authors.  

To read the four Ukraine policy briefs, visit https://www.cfr.org/initiative/ukraine. 

Watch a presentation of the reports at CFR. 

To interview the authors, please contact [email protected].